Fed Meeting: Interest Rate Decision Today

Market News Summary

Markets are preparing for the Federal Reserve meeting today to set interest rates. The Fed is expected to raise 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the markets are awaiting press conference that is to be held after the meeting to determine the course of monetary policy and the number of potential increases during this year in order to tame inflation.

The dollar index is holding its breath after the gains it made in the beginning of the week and is awaiting the Fed’s decision today. The euro-dollar is struggling to maintain its gains achieved over the course of three months, but it may have to face the European data.

As for gold, it regained its lustre and erased the losses of the beginning of the week, with hopes of easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. As for oil, it catches its breath with the weakness of the dollar and dispelling hopes of recession in the United States, and it awaits the OPEC + meeting today.

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)

US Dollar Index chart on 1 February 2023

The dollar index bounced back after its gains in the first trading week, thanks to US data that eased pressure regarding wages. The index fell by approximately 0.16% after the US employment cost fell to 1.0%, compared to expectations of 1.1%, down from the previous reading of 1.2. %, which limits the purchasing power of citizens. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled to be held today, and expectations indicate that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

The dollar index retreated from the resistance levels at 102.60 down to 101.97 levels, as the relative strength index lost its buying momentum, with the MACD indicator retreating to neutral levels. The dollar stabilized at the beginning of today’s trading, awaiting the Fed’s meeting today.

Pivot Point: 102.07

Resistance level	Support level
102.40	101.85
102.55	101.60
102.88	101.50

Euro (EURUSD)

The euro struggles to maintain its three-month gains after a bearish price movement in yesterday’s trading, but it may have to face European data wall during the day as inflation data is scheduled to be released in the European Union with the manufacturing PMI in Germany, France and Italy. Preliminary readings of GDP for the fourth quarter of last year grew by 0.1% against an expected 0.0% and 0.3% previously, and the euro pair faces another challenge with the Fed’s meeting this evening to draw a roadmap for interest rates in the United States.

The EURUSD pair rebounded from the resistance levels at 1.0800, rising to 1.0875 levels, thus suppressing the sellers’ attempt to pressure the prices. The RSI is above 50 levels, with the renewal of the positive momentum of the MACD indicator, which may push the price to test 1.0910 levels, from which the price bounced recently. On the other hand, if the pair fails to hold above 1.0850 levels, we may witness a sliding of the price to lower levels.

Pivot Point: 1.0850

Resistance Level	Support Level
1.0885	1.0833
1.0930	1.0800
1.1000	1.0765

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold regained its luster again and began erasing trading losses at the beginning of the week, with hopes spreading to ease monetary policy by the Fed. Gold benefited from the US labor cost data, which were less than expected as per yesterday. The gold started its trading today within a narrow price range, while investors are wary of any big bets. Ahead of the US Fed’s monetary policy decision later today, China’s sixth consecutive monthly contraction on the Caixin Manufacturing PMI may appear to be challenging gold buyers with manufacturing activity data in Europe, the US and England.

Gold price rebounded from $1,900 an ounce yesterday, to reach 1,930 levels, taking advantage of the positive momentum on the RSI and MACD indicators. 1,900 levels are an important resistance for gold buyers, but 1,950 levels remain the fighting point between sellers and buyers to determine the path of gold.

Pivot Point: 1,950

Resistance level	Support Level
1,943	1,920
1,950	1,900
1,965	1,880

WTI Futures (CL-OIL)

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, supported by the dollar weakened due to signs of slowing inflation and an end to a recession in the United States, which eased concerns among the largest oil consumer in the world. The Fed will be able to temporarily slow the process of raising interest rates, which supported oil prices, and attention will turn to the meeting on Wednesday of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia known as (OPEC +), as it is expected that the producing countries will approve their current agreed production targets.

Crude oil price rose by about $1.25 in yesterday’s trading and got rid of the negative momentum that chased prices during last Friday’s trading starting last Monday. The RSI and MACD indicators show some positivity that the price may benefit from and rise somehow.